Lunar new year shipping delays are already under way, and they will last well past the holiday itself. Lunar New Year fell on Sunday, January 22, 2023. Many Chinese factories closed for it, and ports and carriers are running on thin schedules. If you have an order in production or at sea, expect it to take longer than the usual lead time. This guide explains why, how long to plan for, and what to do now.
Why Lunar New Year slows trade
Lunar New Year is the biggest holiday in China. Workers travel home, often for weeks. China's legal holiday is usually seven days, from New Year's Eve to the sixth day of the first lunar month. This year that window runs from January 21 to January 27.
Factory staff often leave earlier than the legal dates. Many do not return until after the Lantern Festival on February 5. That is why the effect on supply is much longer than one week. Trucks, warehouses, customs staff and port workers also take time off, so cargo moves slowly at every step.
How long the slowdown lasts
Plan for several weeks of disruption in total. Factories slow down in the first half of January as workers start to leave. Most are quiet through the holiday. Output then rebuilds from February 5, and Flexport expects production to be back to normal by the end of February.
Some factories may reopen slowly. If a plant has few orders waiting, it may not bring everyone back at once. Do not assume full output on the first day back. Ask your supplier for the real restart date and the number of staff they expect.
China's government also suggested a looser travel plan this year. Expeditors notes this could spread worker travel across almost four weeks, so the slowdown may be less sharp but longer.
What is happening at ports and with carriers
Demand for shipping space is lower than in recent years, so carriers have cut sailings. A cancelled voyage is called a blank sailing. Crane Worldwide Logistics reported blank sailings for weeks 4 and 5 of the year, with schedules expected to settle from week 6. Expeditors reported that one ocean alliance voided its week 5 sailing on the transpacific eastbound trade.
Air cargo is tight too. Expeditors reported that about 30 percent of flights were cancelled and that air cargo output was low. Feeder services from some Pearl River ports to Hong Kong and South China ports were also suspended from mid-January through mid to late February.
Flexport warned that blank sailings can ripple through schedules for three to four weeks after February 5. So cargo booked for mid-February may still roll to a later ship.
What buyers should do this week
First, check every open order. Ask each supplier three questions. When did you stop production? When will you restart? What is the new ship date?
Second, confirm your bookings with your freight forwarder. Ask whether your sailing is still on the schedule. Ask what the backup is if it is cancelled.
Third, split large orders where you can. Sending cargo on more than one carrier or sailing lowers the risk that a single cancellation holds up everything. Flexport also advises staying flexible on routing, because fewer services are running.
Fourth, tell your own customers early. A clear new date, given now, is better than a missed date later.
How to plan for next year
The holiday moves each year, because it follows the lunar calendar. So check the date early and work backwards. Place orders earlier than usual so goods are finished before workers leave. Crane Worldwide Logistics suggests getting shipments ready before factory closures and allowing extra time for production, backlogs and quotes.
Think about the mode too. For goods with a longer lead time, ocean freight may be cheaper, if you book early. Avoid air exports during the holiday week itself, because customs staffing is limited and inspections can be delayed.
Keep a small buffer of stock for your best sellers. Then a slow few weeks in January and February will not leave your shelves empty.